Garrett Estimate: Flying discs real, possibly domestic
US Air Force intelligence report by Lt. Col. George D. Garrett analyzed 16 flying disc sightings and concluded real objects were flying, possibly a secret domestic project known to top officials.
Background
Background
On July 30, 1947, Lt. Col. George D. Garrett, a collection officer at an Air Force base, produced an informal estimate of 'flying discs' based on 16 selected reports. This document, known as the Garrett Estimate, assessed the phenomena as not purely imagined or natural misperceptions.
Core Content
The report stated that something was in fact moving through the air. It pointed to the absence of enquiries from the highest levels, which strengthened the hypothesis of a domestic project of which the President and other insiders would have been informed. Investigating such a project would be a waste of time.
Distribution and Reactions
The document was forwarded to Gen. George Schulgen and to J. Edgar Hoover at the FBI, with the implicit suggestion that further enquiry would be pointless. It marks an early official acknowledgement of real unidentified flying objects in the middle of the 1947 wave.
Significance
This assessment influenced early UFO investigations such as Project Sign and points to tensions between military secrecy and public perception.